Time to relax

Well I'm taking time out over hols and Speculator has his hand full with a new addition to the family. Take time off to relax as markets now are moving on very light volume and will only confuse. Sentiment is still largely positive and will probably push markets slightly higher still. There are signs in the USA that distribution is happening by the big players into the hands of the man in the street (always the last to hear)

I'm still waiting for the first signs of the next big wave down - it will be well signposted with large volatility and a quick drop. USD has as predicted come back fighting although interestingly enough the stock markets have chosen to ignore this. When times are good and the party music is playing hard why listen to ol' party pooper Dollar. Lets see how long the music still keeps on playing, I have a feeling ol' Dollar is going to pull the plug.

Good Trading

Whitey has some bounce after all...

OK I should have known - SHP's incredible up run will not end with a whimper but with a bang. Volatility is a sign post to change and volatility we sure as nuts got today. Price swing between 6671 (new high) and 6255 is not trivial and the widest price swing that meets the eye. SHP ended virtually unchanged after such fireworks which indicates indecision is present - the bulls and bears ended the day exhausted and bruised succumbing to a "kiss your sister" draw. Do buyers really want to push SHP up too new highs in this current uncertain climate - I most certainly wont feel comfortable bidding to buy SHP at or close to all time highs.... maybe others feel the same way.... Spike highs are fairly reliable indicators of highs put in place as pro's close out longs where others place stops. Need some liquidity to close out a large position? - then go where the stops are....

If you have been stopped out of your short then so be it - maybe sit on the sidelines till a more definitive breakdown occurs... I still feel (relatively) comfortable being short although my comfort level has diminished somewhat. Next few days could be very volatile with futures close out looming - if you cant stomache price swings then take a seat and wait for calm to return.

Good Trading.

Bye Bye Dubai?

Charts from Bloomberg

The market gave us a 1000 point s in just 3 days and has retraced almost all of it on the back of strong US economic data and Dubai. This in turn has strengthened the USD and pulled our market down with it.
Will it go down more? I believe there should be more upside into December running up the rising wedge BUT the UK's FTSE 100 looks like it may have broken down below its rising wedge. We will need to wait and see this week if this is a false break or a genuine turn for the worst in the UK and hence us as well.
The real question will be what happens to the USD! Call that right and there will be a lot of loot in it for you. If Dubai crumbles, it might have adverse effects for risk appetite in the emerging markets! On the contranry, the USD weakiening again will drive our heavy weights north (AGL, BIL).
I truly can't say at this point and advise to sit this week out until we know more. Remember no trading is sometimes the best trading!

Whitey Can't Jump

SHP has closed below the rising support line and now should be shorted. Target 52/53 for a start - if this gives way we are looking at low 40's (we will update when we get there)

Watching the $

If I were in a WWF ring with a free for all between the baddest four wrestlers - The Undertaker in one corner, Stone Cold in the other and the $ in the last corner - I would be watching ...... the $

We are entering a volume light season, a season where I think stop hunting season could be on.

Every FX Trader is heading off for the hols sitting comfortable in there $ shorts - probably spending their trading bonus earned off their $ shorts! $ Bulls are probably working as temp cashiers in some nondescript fruit & veg store after being fired for racking up losses the last year - mind you they might still get their old jobs back.... USDZAR is still basing quite beautifully, as are other $ crosses. Biding its time the $ I believe is reading itself for a show of strength. This will coincide with the sell-off in the stock market.

Good Trading

Posible entry point for the December rally?

TOP40 chart from Bloomberg.

What a sell off! Only at the eleventh hour they decide that Dubai might be in trouble! Amazing.

The last trade I suggested was to short AGL (and hedge with BIL). For those who rode the trade this week had an interesting time with AGL going up 14 bucks before coming back, and those which hedged had made some good money off the bat. I would normally suggest riding the trade longer but even though the TOP40 has not reached its technical level, the FTSE100 in the UK has! I would suggest taking some off the table here as the risk reward is starts to decrease.

For those which have some risk appetite left after this year’s trading might want to bet on a holiday run, this could be a handsome payoff. I would be looking for the TOP40 to test the top resistance line, hence a nice 1000 point December rally. Start collection some resources, especially gold as she comes off. Just a reminder that this is a high octane trade!

Just to clarify the issue, I am still negative on the fundamentals but hate to fight the influx of money into South Africa and the weakening USD. So long as the USD weakens money is coming to SA and the commodities will run! Especially gold!

Gold - the ultimate safe haven....

Gold seems to be on everyone's lips at the moment - got gold?

The fact that gold is outperforming everything out there is starting to make Joe Public sit up and take notice - this is a concern if you are a contrarian. Furthermore gold has pulled away from the safety of its 50 day moving average and significantly from its 200 day moving average. What is the significance of averages?? Well price tends to revert to the mean....... meaning.... this gold guy is getting a bit ahead of himself. The current up wave from Oct 28 has all the characteristics of a short term blow off and I expect a nasty correction around the corner.

I'm a super Bull on gold and expect it to become the safe haven that everyone runs too as the faulty tower paper currencies is built on crumbles. The motivation for gold spiking currently is not quite for this reasoning - not just yet. Some astute investors saw the writing on the wall long ago but most now are either looking for a return on their capital or expecting inflation to launch to the moon (Crazy since prices are most definitely not sky rocketing up at the moment!)

Imagine if you are a US investor - Uncle Sam is paying you 0.25% per YEAR on your savings! Won't you also be looking for a return somewhere, and hey gold stood like a proverbial rock during the crash of 2008. Seems like a safe place to park your cash - no? Careful - Mr Market has a way of ridding itself of late comers to the party.

If you are long gold for the next 10 years - then I would reassure you and say ignore any short term swings - your money is sitting in the right place.

If your focus is shorter term - few months to a year I'd recommend taking a seat on the sideline soon (today) There is a saying : "...gold goes up on an escalator and down in an elevator...." And this escalator is starting to get awfully crowded.

Here is a an interesting read - Faber is someone I truly respect and feel is one of the more astute market observers - read this and plan your future investments accordingly.
Marc Faber interview

Good Trading.

Possible Punt - Short Whitey

Shoprite (SHP) which has been the mainstay of SA portfolio managers is starting to look a tad tenuous. The chart together with Mr Price and other defensive's such as Pick n' Pay  have performed remarkably well. The support line is looming and will Whitey/Wiese pull another fast one?? Christo Wiese their chairman recently covered his ass with options and one wonders what he knows - one always has to keep a close eye on these two boys... read the SENS a bit on SHP and you will see what I mean. Significant exercising of options has also been happening of late.... having the inside scoop is always useful.............

EDIT - Let me just add for those trigger happy cowboys - wait for daily close below the trendline - or even wait for a break and a back test kiss of the line before shorting

Whereto from here?

Let us asses the status quo:

1. The market has run primarily on the back of the weak dollar and despite reports by reputed economist, the euro is struggling at the 1.50 level.

2. The market has had a great run not only in the resent month but it has literally has made a 'V' shaped recovery so far.

3. The large and medium caps have run hard but small caps have lagged.

4. Gold seems to be world's hedge of choice for any given scenario.

Was it the last run of the year? Will there be a holiday run? It easy to get bullish in this type of environment, every time there is pullback the market proceeds to make another high. Remember, every time the market does this, the probability falls of another new high being reached. A major worry has to be the HUGE divergence trade building on the US markets. (RSI is making lower and lower highs whilst the SPX is making new highs) . This will pull the S&P 500 back down to 1050 in the short term and possibly down to the 980 level in the longer term, no doubt that SA will follow. After a pullback to 1050 it is very possible for the markets to enjoy a December rally, we will just have to see.

I still believe that the real threat to our stock market rally will come in April next year when our reporting season starts. The run in the stock market has to backed by some earning, ...but what if they are not there? Just looks at WHL after their results this week!

* My favorite shorts to participate in the down run are AGL and the banks.

* If you be so inclined to hedge, do so with BIL and insurance/apparel retailers.

Sell off about to get going in earnest

Gill Marcus says the world is flat - for interest rates that is.

Interestingly enough Fin24 states here http://www.fin24.com that SA lost 1 million - yes that's right 1 million jobs in 2009. Pretty scare stuff considering we are already 40% unemployed of a population circa 40 million. I think once unemployment picks up steam the pressure will really intensify on Marcus to cut further and I think she will relent. Let's see.... I think there are a few more cuts down the line than most think. This fits nicely with my deflation theory where prices will come down allowing central banks to cut further. Will we get to the good ol' USA's 0.25% - I think it would be safe to say no, although single digits,  definitely.

Back to my Title of the post - nothing to do with Gill Marcus - this sell off. Markets tend to move on their own steam and volition, economic announcements only tend to have a temporary effect. Although don't "pooh pooh" them - those temporary and volatile movements can be very profitable.

USDZAR seems to have formed a nice double bottom from which I expect a nice long trade-able rally - ditto for stocks (inversely) which follow USD closely.

Is this the end of the bear market rally? I don't know - my perspective is that this is bear market really in a larger bear - which means some significant downside still exists. What is throwing my thought process a bit at the moment is the fact that central banks seems hell bent on devaluing their currencies and printing money like there is no tomorrow. The Fed has already cut to 0.25% even though they espouse a strong dollar policy (yeah right) and other developed central banks are following in these foot steps. What this ultimately will mean is that people will pile into hard assets - gold, commodities, property and the like. For SA this could be a boon and our commodity laden stock market could become the happy parking ground for investors unhappy with leaving there hard earned moola in paper currency. This could mean a very strong rand ultimately (can you say R4 to the dollar) and a stock market which outperforms (relatively) the DOW and other developed world indices. I feel this rush to hard assets is starting to show itself in the gold price climbing unabated although maybe it is being pre-empted just a tad - I feel by a few years....This bear needs to run it course, its only had one course thus far and is hungry for more.....

Here is chart to remind you where we are - ALSH is bumping it head against strong weekly resistance - this at a minimum will provide a deep correction if not the start of the next leg down to new lows.

This long overdue correction is around the corner, shorting NOW would be good. Could we bounce more after this - yes, although don't count on it.

Good trading

I'm starting to get that itch...

Things seem to be getting into position for a strong sell-off  - the bull is getting weary! Yes I sound like a Perma-Bear, but hey at some point I will be right ;)

After a strong rally such as yesterday you would have expected some strong follow through today to validate the new leg up, this has not happened with the ALSH ending the day virtually unchanged. WHAT ! indecision after such a strong up day?? Surely that cannot be.......

Doji's are a sign of indecision and after a strong up day, indecision should not be present. Yesterdays strong up day probably was a short squeeze and is Mr Markets way of getting Bears out before staging another drop.

USDZAR seems to be building a nice from which to launch, patience is all that is required. The USD rally could be a fast and furious affair with every man and his dog selling the dollar. As Buffet says "Buy when others are fearful".

Remember USD up equals Stocks down and this includes "risky" emerging markets. The USD seems to have taken over as the currency of choice for the "carry trade" - i.e. borrow in USD and invest in risky assets.

Sentiment wise the Bears are scared currently to pronounce their Bearishness - this is precisely the right time to SELL. Remember with the crash of 2008 and you heard the lone voice saying BUY.... and you thought to yourself - "what a nut case, you want to buy NOW, of all times........!" Well I feel we are approaching the exact 180 deg of that scenario.


Good  Trading

Downside gathering momentum

Well the tide seems to be turning..... finally I'm seeing some profit on a daily basis which is really a pleasant change. Being obstinate and staying short has cost me dearly... I still don't feel I am out of the woods and suspect more upside is to come.

What concerns me being a "contrarian and all" (South Africanism) is that too many people are worried about the rally - the Prechter coined phrase "...climbing a wall of worry..." is apt at this point of time. No-one seems to buy this rally and there is way too many worry warts out there. What this implies potentially is a further climb after this correction runs it course. I could be wrong here, and don't get me wrong I have not turned long term Bullish and feel we are still within the grips of a large Bear market although there might still be some more upside left.

FX markets have played out nicely as predicted - USDZAR has rallied strongly off its base and now I believe is due for a correction before is muster strength for a surge even higher. For now trend is to Rand weakness and all Rand rallies should be sold. Same goes for the ALSH rallies should be sold.

Good trading

Back Again

Sorry - been busy with other commitments although back again and will try to be more consistent - wish the trading would also be!

Market is flip-flopping around and seems pretty directionless. I said in an earlier post that a top is in the process of building. Since momentum to the upside has been strong and relentless to the upside the last 6/7 months one cannot reasonably expect it to just flip to the downside without a fight. One can probably imagine the market/momentum as that of a large tanker - once momentum in a certain direction has been built it takes a fair amount of time and distance for it to stop. Apparently tanker engines are switched off kilometers before ports are reached!

If one looks at the ALSH it has reached an area of strong resistance which previously provided very strong support - since that line in the sand has now been broken - it is NOW very strong resistance. I feel this will contain the advance and will be the point from which the next decline will start.

Looking at the FX market an interesting pattern is emerging. USDZAR seems to be basing and fighting to gather upside momentum.  Remember for now the relationship is USD up = stock markets down. (Of late this relationship has been dis-proven at times though.... keep em peeled... )

I'm still sitting short after lightening my exposure somewhat in the past week. Lets see how things pan out this week which is nearly at an end.

Careful is you are long you might just soon be wrong!

Good

Trading

Well I got that wrong!

OK powering ahead and all the Bulls are patting themselves on the back. Don't get to smug just yet Buddy - when complacency sets in and you think you can do no wrong - that is the time to question your thought process.

I have to admit this relentless push upwards has taken the wind out of my sails - as well as cut into my trading stake, but I've been taught an important lesson. Trade the market NOT the economic reality. The market moves on its own steam and is its own beast...

The economic reality is things ARE NOT improving,  this market WILL tank in the not too distant future when sentiment darkens and more and more people experience the recession/depression. Sentiment is a key driver of markets and at this point in time people still harbour memories of stocks climbing 20/30% a year and money being made by simply buying and holding.a stock. How quickly they forget the tumultuous drop of October 2008. This to my mind is a warning of what is still to come... be careful out there I believe a topping process is IN PROGRESS at this stage.....volatility is bound to pick up in the next couple of months and when downside momentum gathers steam it will be a frightening sight.

Personally I will be hunkering down reducing shorts and waiting for the topping process to play out over the next couple of weeks. Once I take note of momentum switch to the downside I will go aggressively short - although take note having a solid stomache for shorting is a prerequisite - I learn t this lesson in Oct 2008 where 5% up days on a stock tanking is common place. IF Oct 2008 was a 1 and we are heading for a 3 wave down once this 2 up wave has completed we could see volatility which makes 1 look tame, so be warned.

So for now sitting on my hands and trying to survive with current shorts in hand. Inter-market divergences are starting to happen where new highs are not being confirmed by all indices - a sign of exhaustion. Rolling over is not a synchronous process but a game of dominoes as all eventually topple....

Good trading

Week Ahead - quick post....

I'm expecting the week ahead to be a solidly down week for the ALSH/TOPI - probably several weeks before a noteworthy bounce comes around. Why? The USD is about to engineer a short squeeze of mammoth proportions that's why. The highs of EURUSD have not been violated although it came close. IF these highs are violated on a daily close basis I will have to conceded that we could drag our heels higher, lets admit to ourselves the push to the upside the last couple of weeks has not been of the earth-shattering variety.

The highs of EURUSD was recorded 23 Sept 2009 at 1.4845. Lets watch this level intently.... I'm still short the stock market although patience is wearing thin - ditto my grub stake. This week is make or break for me and this Bear (which could be the last one standing) is even starting to doubt his bearishness.....

Good trading

Still Soaring....

OK so this sucker is not going to lie down easily.... EURUSD is powering ahead and USDZAR broke below the mini uptrend level although both as yet have not broken above and below (respectively) their high and lows - WOW now even I am confused. EURUSD is a whisker away as I type this: 1.4817 where the previous high recorded was 1.4845 on Sep 23. So all is not lost until these highs (and lows) have been broken, although my confidence levels have diminished somewhat.

I'm still heavily short the stock market although have been stopped out of my EURUSD short. I'm going to sit on the sidelines a bit and watch EURUSD, if this puppy melts up I would be truly surprised as the Sentiment index - DSI is sitting at a measly 3%  Dollar Bulls which leaves no-one to sell Dollars - anyone still got some?

Things currently do not add up, markets are rallying for the wrong reasons as fear of supposed inflation swells although where is the inflation ???? CPIX is dropping, house prices are dropping , food inflation is dropping, we are in deflation people!

As the old cliched saying goes - "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - I might be well be tested on this theory....

All I can say is be careful out there - Blogs that I have been reading that have been uber Bearish are starting to lose there Bears one by one. Bloggers that were unable to type |Bull" are doubting their Bearishness - these are all signs that the Bear is only just around the corner. We could be in a seasonal inversion this year: where we rally in October a traditionally bearish month and drop the rest of the year a seasonally bullish period - just to REALLY throw Traders off the scent.

Gold may be blowing off to the upside and can have incredibly volatile swings - look back historically to the 80's when gold spiked up over $800 - are we heading for something similar I don't know. I truly expect gold to follow the deflationary route which is down with all other asset classes - at this stage it is defying gravity and powering up. Gold is a great hedge against currency devaluation which all central banks seem hell bent on or a hedge against uncertainty - which lets face it, there is plenty of...

In the greater scheme of things I'm expecting deflation to really come home to roost over the next couple of years which should act as a drag on gold, commodities and all assets in general including equities, houses, food etc. Only much later inflation will start taking hold and probably extend in hyper fashion as countries could default on their debt, wars break out and significant restructuring of economies will happen. This is the period in which I expect gold to flourish. So don't preempt me buddy - I'm routing for you, not just yet!

By the by - anyone have more info on SHP (Shoprite) re Steinhoff possible merger - I'm short the sucker and this chart just tells me watch out below....

Up and away we go........ POP!

Is the rally over? Maybe... I am watching EURUSD closely as it has quite a bearing on the ALSH. I have shorted EURUSD over 1.47 with tight stops and will watch how things pan out. If this is the end of wave 2 then wave 3 down is only getting started and could take us a lot lower - ditto for the ALSH.

Interestingly enough the USDZAR is maintaining its upward trend as well for now. If this breaks it could be a sign that we are heading for new highs in the ALSH causing me to reassess USD strength and equity weakness.

 The ALSH rallied nicely today as expected putting on 1.45%. There probably is more upside in store for us tomorrow morning at least although lets see how things pan out in the afternoon.... I'm expecting a stalling out process now starting from tomorrow through to Friday and then down again. Lets see how tomorrow pans out and see if it goes according to plan...

Week Ahead

The week that past played out more or less as expected with EURUSD dropping - although according to my alternate count. There is now a possibility of a C wave correction up back the old target of just over 1.47. Which would be the 61.8 fibo retracement of the 5 wave move down.

There are many more 5 waves down add this is only the first of many. The next wave down will be a "humdinger" - wave 3's typically are.

The ALSH has very neatly tested its support line and one can only but expect a bounce from here. I would not expect it to make a new high but stall out below its previous high. Possibly getting as high as 25300-500. This is all in synchronicity with the FX Markets - the inverse correlation at this stage between the USD and the stock markets is hard to ignore and until this relationship breaks down lets not ignore it.

Shorting the coming bounce could be a very profitable exercise as wave 3 down will be a fast wild ride down - crunching through the rising support line and causing technical havoc so to speak. As stated in a previous mail - overwhelming consensus at this stage is for a correction and then marching north once again. My sense is this "correction" (as everyone expects) is rather the next leg down breaking past previous lows.

So expect some volatility and a bounce in the coming week - yes dead cats can bounce - typically not very high though. Once this bounce runs out of steam and momentum dies down look to short aggressively and LOOK OUT BELOW

Have a good trading week

Kick

Are we there yet!

EURUSD broke below resistance as predicted (now where is my crystal ball again...) and is currently languishing lower waiting to either crunch lower in a wave 3 or extends it current rally. My feeling is you guessed it......................crunch lower. First the counter-trend wave two has to finish the C leg up which could potentially take it just above 1.47.

The count I have above looks a bit iffy and we could potentially be in wave 4 up now with a wave 5 subsequent to make a new low before wave 2 up starts.

Trend changes also tend to start with impulse waves and this one objectively does not quite look impulsive enough - need to refresh your memory on the definition of impulsive ?

[If you are reading this and wondering what mumbo jumbo is this guy talking about,  the only waves I know are those lapping up onto a beach - well educate yourself on Elliot Waves. Search on Google and you are bound to find a million hits.]

I know, I know the blog is titled SA Equites Trading not FX Trading dumb ass! Remember though that markets are highly correlated and FX markets tend to give clearer signs...... would you like a really clear sign........ remember USDZAR was not quite confirming the EURUSD break out. Well have a look:

My theory is simple: USD up = Stocks down. Why? Less investing in risky assets (such as emerging markets) as investors climb back into their safe USD shells.

SA Equities markets today were fairly directionless with the ALSH closing up a measly 0.22%. With the USD now heading up from extremely oversold levels with sentiment only sitting at 3% Dollar Bulls as measured by DSI - equity markets will come under pressure and I foresee further downside as long as 23526 on the TOPI holds.

Are we there yet! As the title asks - well the selling might only just be starting......hold on, once wave 3 down starts it will be fast scary ride.

Edit: Also  if you are long gold I would get the hell out now. Long term I am VERY bullish, right now we could be heading down Fast with a capital F.

Bulls not dead just yet

Lively day yesterday - first we plunged then rallied as the good old USA pulled us up on their open. Yesterday is Yom Kippur and traditionally a low volume day in the States - so don't garner too much from the price action yesterday. I have a feeling we will race out of the blocks this morning only to fall back in the afternoon.

I'm still bearish as long as 23556 on the TOPI holds, this potentially could be wave 2 up followed by a sharp wave 3 down. Wave 2 probably will be stopped by the upward sloping support now turned resistance if this is the beginning of a decline as surmised.....

USDZAR not confirming EURUSD breakout....

As stated in the previous post here we go.....

The week ahead

The market seems to be setting up for a sell off....if we are setting up for the big one (which I believe will make the first sell of look like a whimper) I don't know. Mr Market has a way of ensuring only a select few benefit from its travails. If I I'm reading things correctly - the current opinion tends to a correction is required before the market steams ahead to the upside. Therefore playing contrarian: we are either continuing relentlessly upwards, decimating all Bears (are any left?) for say another 20% or we crash through all support to the downside and never see these highs again - at least for the foreseeable future.

Being the grumbly Bear I am, I lean towards the latter. I tend to feel those sitting long currently sleep at night with one eye open - if downside does start gathering momentum and your classic Fibonacci retracement levels are steamrolled (38.2%, 50% etc) - these guys will jump out faster than you can say "Desmond Tutu!"

Here is a close up of where we are - pevious support turned resistance (turncoat!) - classic technical analysis. The other bearish sign is the rising wedge - it has not quite gotten as tightly compacted as one would like - although beggar bears cant be choosers.

Here is a long term view of the ALSH - can anyone say parabolic!

Now if you were an investor pre when the crash happened and did see this chart would you not have felt ever so slightly queasy.... Kind of like climbing Kilimanjaro without properly acclimatizing and doing the mandatory "descents" to properly adjust to such rarefied atmosphere.

My view is quite obvious based on the above long term chart since 1960, this puppy got a bit carried away (kinda like our property market) and we are headed back to long term support currently sitting at ALSH 10500. Obviously the trend line rises over time and I can't see us dropping to 10500 over the next couple of days :) So more than likely finding support at the May 2002 high of 11665.

Bearish? You betcha. Everything goes through cycles and markets that have turned cyclically bearish tend to reach a bottom when there is no hope left and a general feeling of revulsion pervades. Think we are there yet? Not a chance.

Don't be fooled by bank Analysts, Portfolio Managers and CNBC or Summit - these people have it in there best interest for people to stay involved in the market - have you ever heard someone say SELL/get out the market while you can.....!!!

Will post updates as the week progresses. Keep your eye on the EURUSD as stated previously - short term support has been broken lets see how far the Buck rallies. Interestingly enough USDZAR has not broken resistance as yet and as a beta FX cross, USDZAR tends to lead EURUSD. Therefor the break might have been a false one... lets see how the week pans out.

Pre-market open, post holiday update on EURUSD and markets in general, and some more jibber jabber to make this title REALLY long.....

Well having a peek this morning and seems like EURUSD has broken the short term support line and seems destined to head lower on the immediate term - possibly after retesting the break which would be an ideal shorting opportunity.

Looking longer term on a monthly chart this is the point where EURUSD probably heads lower over a multi month possibly year basis. Pretty brave call Kick when the rest of the world have buried the dollar for good.

This call is largely based on my deflationary outlook for the world economy as a whole - but more on the deflation and inflation debate later.... take note, you better sort this out in your own head for the sake of your investments. Read more on this with Mr Deflation himself Mish: Is pent up inflation from Fed printing waiting on deck....

The Nikki has followed suite this morning and is as of this writing 2.2% under water. I always feel the Japanese are a bit more astute than the rest of the world being through a deflationary nightmare for the past 20 years. Hang Seng (biggest casino in the world) down  0.5% ...only - wait till this puppy start gathering some steam to the downside.

Other news is the G20 are wrapping up what Bankers will be paid in the future (great when you end up getting a government salary) -"World leaders are poised to crack down on banker pay and better coordinate economic policies as they seek to temper the excesses ...." G-20 Nears Agreement on Banker Pay, Policy Coordination as Crisis Recedes
If you are in the banking business you better start looking at ways of squeezing more money out of the retail side - high risk exotic derivatives and the like are probably heading for the dust heap as conservatism becomes fashion. High bank fees here we come - our local big 4 have already starting squeezing this rock with 30+% increases coming through over the past year.

Expecting the JSE to open lower this morning and play a bit of catch up - yesterday being an off day. Let's see how Nedbank pans out today after my short punt: Short Nedbank ?

Date correction

Seems like the date is cached by the Blogspot editor if you keep the window open - the previous post is for Thursday! Wish the hols started yesterday already - LOL! :)

EURUSD seems to have reached a 5 wave top and the rising trend line is in danger - when the USD rises the stock markets fall - so keep them peeled...

Happy Holidays are here again - doo di di di da da da ....

Heritage day in South African so markets are closed. I'm off tomorrow as well to make a well deserved long weekend! For fellow South African  Traders that have also indulged enjoy the break! Especially if you have been bearish the last couple of months and have had your head handed to you :) ....that's me.

I will peak in tomorrow and post some commentary as I feel we are on the cusp of a large turn down - yes this time for real. ;)

Short Nedbank?

Here we go - I shorted this puppy way to early and sitting with blood on my hands. Although now it looks way too tempting to pass.

It is arriving in an area where there will be severe technical resistance with a downward sloping resistance line from the 20 April 2007 (158.10) to the 7 November 2007 (151.50) - this is providing resistance in the 128 area - not far from today's close of 122.85.

Do I think it will get to the higher resistance line - no. Nedbank has rallied close on 100% after dropping fairly spectacularly to 64.92 on 9 March 2009 - overdone......you tell me?

Note on chart - Oh yes I unashamedly use OST - Standard Bank's Online Share Trading - hey OST do I get something for punting you guys...........

Why don't I like Nedbank fundamentally? Take note I am not a fundamental trader but I do keep tabs on things

1. smallest of the big 4, 
2. no big plans to expand into Africa or abroad into China, India etc, 
3. and the clincher........roll the drums.......offering R750 if you open an account with them -does that sound like desperation stuff to you or what.....?

Hello Fellow South African Traders

This is my first post (hopefully of many) as I try to disentangle my thoughts and put out there what is in my head. The problem of today is an overload of information making it nigh impossible to synthesize and come up with some form of coherency.

The plan is to post daily and let you know what is going on in my head. I will not be posting trade recommendations nor publicizing my current open positions. Although I reserve the right to change my mind later on this... :) And no I'm not a woman...

Read my bio to know more about myself and my trading history - what I will tell you here is I have an unquestioned, unstoppable, "bubbling-over" passion for trading !

So come in, take a seat and actively participate by adding commentary which is thought provoking and encourages knowledge sharing in this most challenging of endeavors.