Sell off about to get going in earnest

Gill Marcus says the world is flat - for interest rates that is.

Interestingly enough Fin24 states here http://www.fin24.com that SA lost 1 million - yes that's right 1 million jobs in 2009. Pretty scare stuff considering we are already 40% unemployed of a population circa 40 million. I think once unemployment picks up steam the pressure will really intensify on Marcus to cut further and I think she will relent. Let's see.... I think there are a few more cuts down the line than most think. This fits nicely with my deflation theory where prices will come down allowing central banks to cut further. Will we get to the good ol' USA's 0.25% - I think it would be safe to say no, although single digits,  definitely.

Back to my Title of the post - nothing to do with Gill Marcus - this sell off. Markets tend to move on their own steam and volition, economic announcements only tend to have a temporary effect. Although don't "pooh pooh" them - those temporary and volatile movements can be very profitable.

USDZAR seems to have formed a nice double bottom from which I expect a nice long trade-able rally - ditto for stocks (inversely) which follow USD closely.

Is this the end of the bear market rally? I don't know - my perspective is that this is bear market really in a larger bear - which means some significant downside still exists. What is throwing my thought process a bit at the moment is the fact that central banks seems hell bent on devaluing their currencies and printing money like there is no tomorrow. The Fed has already cut to 0.25% even though they espouse a strong dollar policy (yeah right) and other developed central banks are following in these foot steps. What this ultimately will mean is that people will pile into hard assets - gold, commodities, property and the like. For SA this could be a boon and our commodity laden stock market could become the happy parking ground for investors unhappy with leaving there hard earned moola in paper currency. This could mean a very strong rand ultimately (can you say R4 to the dollar) and a stock market which outperforms (relatively) the DOW and other developed world indices. I feel this rush to hard assets is starting to show itself in the gold price climbing unabated although maybe it is being pre-empted just a tad - I feel by a few years....This bear needs to run it course, its only had one course thus far and is hungry for more.....

Here is chart to remind you where we are - ALSH is bumping it head against strong weekly resistance - this at a minimum will provide a deep correction if not the start of the next leg down to new lows.

This long overdue correction is around the corner, shorting NOW would be good. Could we bounce more after this - yes, although don't count on it.

Good trading