Time to relax

Well I'm taking time out over hols and Speculator has his hand full with a new addition to the family. Take time off to relax as markets now are moving on very light volume and will only confuse. Sentiment is still largely positive and will probably push markets slightly higher still. There are signs in the USA that distribution is happening by the big players into the hands of the man in the street (always the last to hear)

I'm still waiting for the first signs of the next big wave down - it will be well signposted with large volatility and a quick drop. USD has as predicted come back fighting although interestingly enough the stock markets have chosen to ignore this. When times are good and the party music is playing hard why listen to ol' party pooper Dollar. Lets see how long the music still keeps on playing, I have a feeling ol' Dollar is going to pull the plug.

Good Trading

Whitey has some bounce after all...

OK I should have known - SHP's incredible up run will not end with a whimper but with a bang. Volatility is a sign post to change and volatility we sure as nuts got today. Price swing between 6671 (new high) and 6255 is not trivial and the widest price swing that meets the eye. SHP ended virtually unchanged after such fireworks which indicates indecision is present - the bulls and bears ended the day exhausted and bruised succumbing to a "kiss your sister" draw. Do buyers really want to push SHP up too new highs in this current uncertain climate - I most certainly wont feel comfortable bidding to buy SHP at or close to all time highs.... maybe others feel the same way.... Spike highs are fairly reliable indicators of highs put in place as pro's close out longs where others place stops. Need some liquidity to close out a large position? - then go where the stops are....

If you have been stopped out of your short then so be it - maybe sit on the sidelines till a more definitive breakdown occurs... I still feel (relatively) comfortable being short although my comfort level has diminished somewhat. Next few days could be very volatile with futures close out looming - if you cant stomache price swings then take a seat and wait for calm to return.

Good Trading.

Bye Bye Dubai?

Charts from Bloomberg

The market gave us a 1000 point s in just 3 days and has retraced almost all of it on the back of strong US economic data and Dubai. This in turn has strengthened the USD and pulled our market down with it.
Will it go down more? I believe there should be more upside into December running up the rising wedge BUT the UK's FTSE 100 looks like it may have broken down below its rising wedge. We will need to wait and see this week if this is a false break or a genuine turn for the worst in the UK and hence us as well.
The real question will be what happens to the USD! Call that right and there will be a lot of loot in it for you. If Dubai crumbles, it might have adverse effects for risk appetite in the emerging markets! On the contranry, the USD weakiening again will drive our heavy weights north (AGL, BIL).
I truly can't say at this point and advise to sit this week out until we know more. Remember no trading is sometimes the best trading!

Whitey Can't Jump

SHP has closed below the rising support line and now should be shorted. Target 52/53 for a start - if this gives way we are looking at low 40's (we will update when we get there)