Are we there yet!

EURUSD broke below resistance as predicted (now where is my crystal ball again...) and is currently languishing lower waiting to either crunch lower in a wave 3 or extends it current rally. My feeling is you guessed it......................crunch lower. First the counter-trend wave two has to finish the C leg up which could potentially take it just above 1.47.

The count I have above looks a bit iffy and we could potentially be in wave 4 up now with a wave 5 subsequent to make a new low before wave 2 up starts.

Trend changes also tend to start with impulse waves and this one objectively does not quite look impulsive enough - need to refresh your memory on the definition of impulsive ?

[If you are reading this and wondering what mumbo jumbo is this guy talking about,  the only waves I know are those lapping up onto a beach - well educate yourself on Elliot Waves. Search on Google and you are bound to find a million hits.]

I know, I know the blog is titled SA Equites Trading not FX Trading dumb ass! Remember though that markets are highly correlated and FX markets tend to give clearer signs...... would you like a really clear sign........ remember USDZAR was not quite confirming the EURUSD break out. Well have a look:

My theory is simple: USD up = Stocks down. Why? Less investing in risky assets (such as emerging markets) as investors climb back into their safe USD shells.

SA Equities markets today were fairly directionless with the ALSH closing up a measly 0.22%. With the USD now heading up from extremely oversold levels with sentiment only sitting at 3% Dollar Bulls as measured by DSI - equity markets will come under pressure and I foresee further downside as long as 23526 on the TOPI holds.

Are we there yet! As the title asks - well the selling might only just be starting......hold on, once wave 3 down starts it will be fast scary ride.

Edit: Also  if you are long gold I would get the hell out now. Long term I am VERY bullish, right now we could be heading down Fast with a capital F.