This year really had some interesting moments! Made lot of loot on some sitters and lost plenty (luckly not all!) on what can only be described as a white knuckle ride.
What lies ahead for us is a mistery. I can't help but feel we are in a bubble here. But that is 12 years of experiance talking, this is a new world order we find ourselves in. No time has ever been like the present, money being thrown around by the central banks like its tissue paper. I guess what I am trying to say is that I am long, very long this market. The trend is your friend, ...except the bend at the end. And that is what I spend my days trying to figure out, where and when is the bend coming for me.
Goo luck trading and stay in the black!
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Gold Shares
Long time no see. Sorry for the absence although when things don't make sense or are pure bullshit I sit out and wait....
Have a look at this Gold Fields(GFI) chart and notice that a bullish breakout is imminent.
Gold Fields (GFI) is reaching a very interesting juncture - it has been in a downtrend since July 2006 where it peaked circa 172 and closed Fri at 102 very close to the resistance line. What is interesting is the pullbacks from the downwards sloping resistance line are getting ever tighter and GFI seems to be at the cusp of breaking free from its grasp. Gold shares are known for performing phenomenally in tough times and were a stand out during the Great Depression of the 1930's - the Dow lost 73% vs some gold shares rising by over 400%
The sloping down trend could continue for a while longer although once the break occurs (which you could wait for) it should have significant bullish implications. This bullish downward sloping wedge has been in the making for 4 years plus, so expect a lengthy climb once the breakout occurs.
Anglogold(ANG) has been building a giant reverse head-and-shoulders formation and is also looking incredibly bullish. The upside potential is massive - easily in the R500's over the next few years.
The range since 2006 has been a R100 tight range from R260 to R360 with a brief sojourn lower to form the head in Oct 2008. The right shoulder has been forming beautifully and typically are shorter. Either wait for the breakout of R36/70 before buying or buy now in the midst of the shoulder formation and sit back and wait as I have been doing.
My punt for the next few tough years :)
Note: no-one is finding it easy and some legendary traders are packing it in (maybe before the ponzi nature is uncovered? Who knows.... lets see)
Good Trading
Have a look at this Gold Fields(GFI) chart and notice that a bullish breakout is imminent.
Gold Fields (GFI) is reaching a very interesting juncture - it has been in a downtrend since July 2006 where it peaked circa 172 and closed Fri at 102 very close to the resistance line. What is interesting is the pullbacks from the downwards sloping resistance line are getting ever tighter and GFI seems to be at the cusp of breaking free from its grasp. Gold shares are known for performing phenomenally in tough times and were a stand out during the Great Depression of the 1930's - the Dow lost 73% vs some gold shares rising by over 400%
The sloping down trend could continue for a while longer although once the break occurs (which you could wait for) it should have significant bullish implications. This bullish downward sloping wedge has been in the making for 4 years plus, so expect a lengthy climb once the breakout occurs.
Anglogold(ANG) has been building a giant reverse head-and-shoulders formation and is also looking incredibly bullish. The upside potential is massive - easily in the R500's over the next few years.
The range since 2006 has been a R100 tight range from R260 to R360 with a brief sojourn lower to form the head in Oct 2008. The right shoulder has been forming beautifully and typically are shorter. Either wait for the breakout of R36/70 before buying or buy now in the midst of the shoulder formation and sit back and wait as I have been doing.
My punt for the next few tough years :)
Note: no-one is finding it easy and some legendary traders are packing it in (maybe before the ponzi nature is uncovered? Who knows.... lets see)
Good Trading
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
SomeTechnicals
The ALSH is balanced fairly precariously - and if you consider, it is currently trading at levels made back in April 2007. You cannot possibly feel satisfied being square after 3 years of fairly gut wrenching ups and downs. That is, if you had the nerve to stay in the market through 2008 (which I doubt). The "band of [french] resistance" should contain any further advances and "ondertoe is ons voorland" (Afrikaans for any international readers...)
Edit: Mind you if we had to get some perfect symmetry to the previous "making of a high" in 2008 - we could advance to slightly higher than the 15 April 2010 high of 29565 and briefly peek into the 30k's - then perform a "U-turn" or should I say a "n -turn" and head much lower. This would quite beautifully mirror the triple top formation of 2008 AND would prove conclusively that trading is an art form...
A look at ABSA which is is a share I am negative on - including other banking shares - but simply picked on for the sake of this post with no prejudice to other banking shares intended.
ASA is descending in 5 waves down indicating a trend change. We could have a counter trend rally soon once if breaks out of the descending wedge which typically occurs in ABC fashion. This could coincide with the EUR making a strong comeback against the USD short term to relieve its heavily oversold status.
By the way I am personally in the process of switching to Capitec Bank - what an absolute pleasure!!!! Being paid enough interest to cover banking fees (which are ridiculously low) is quite a novel concept. Check out these interest rates.... and you are not switching? ---- WHY?
Capitec Daily Savings Account
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Read this.....
A brilliant article on where we are and what lies ahead - change is definitely a coming.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Dangerous Times...
Things are starting to heat up and the Year of the Tiger is living up to its reputation. Hold onto your horse this is going to be a rough ride.
Since I have posted last quite a bit has been happening:
- The PIIGS are heading for a roasting - don't think they are the only ones in this precarious situation - most of the developed world is including the UK and USA. Have a look at who is the next domino to fall
- Greek debt has been downgraded to Junk levels... other PIIGS not that far behind.
- The Greek populace is rioting and airing their discontent with regards to the austerity measures imposed. Think the money loaned to Greece will ever be repaid...?
- EU provides a $1 Trillion dollar package to help alleviate stresses in the EU financial market and save the Euro - what are they thinking.... will it be 2 trillion next month - why not just round it up to a cool 10 trillion, Then the world will know how SERIOUS the EU is... does any of this smack of desperation. These guys don't actually know how to solve this - they have one bazooka to fire and of late it has been misfiring... Albert Einstein once said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" Think throwing more debt after bad is going to solve a problem causes by over-indebtedness?
- Last week we saw an incredulous drop on the DOW of 9% intra-day. This 1000 point slide was terrifying to even the market- makers on the open-outcry market. Think this is a warning of things to come? You better believe it. Think a 20%/30% drop in one day is impossible? Think again. When a market should be sliding but is constantly propped back up the stability is compromised and even though it is successfully held up temporarily, the situation gets ever more precarious. Think of this as a volcano that has been suppressed for years, pressure has been building inexorably as sure as the progression of time - artificially it has been suppressed but the inevitability lies ahead. When this market drops limit down - exchanges will be flooded with orders, servers will crash and pandemonium will break out. People will want to get out at ANY price. Do you feel confident putting your hard earned cash in an environment where you could loose 9% in 20 minutes?
- Trading bots or High Frequency Traders have stirred the ire of the Big Eye in the sky. These guys which provide 73% of liquidity in the US market have been fingered as one of the causes of the dramatic 9% slide. Anyone out there care what fair value is or where a share should be....? Who cares when you can trade in and out of the market sub-second and fleece the unsuspecting public by pushing prices ever so slightly higher/lower and making minuscule amounts although a couple of million times over sub-second.
- Goldman Sach's which does, I quote "...Gods work ..." seems to be the fall guy for the financial crisis. Remember the witch hunts of the 15th century - sure Goldman's is no saint but who really is? If Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citibank etc had to be investigated - they would be found wanting too.
- Gold has made a new high. This is the once place that has shown remarkable stability together with Gold shares. Gold has not yet gone parabolic - when this happens you know it is in its final bull phase - till the spike higher comes - rest easy in your gold investment. Just know that things don't go up or down in a straight line and a correction could be due at any time.
- China is over-heating and its property market is on the brink of a collapse. China imploding could have some dire-consequence for SA short to medium term. China is the main importer of our heavily resource based economy and this could damage our economy and job prospects.
My take on things now with regards to investments and equities: Stay vested in Gold Shares, physical Gold and cash. Agricultural shares and base metals should also hold value although less so. Precious metals and cash are the place to be. I'm happy with cash as long as inflation does not start rearing out of control. I ultimately still believe we are heading for a deflationary crash of epic proportions.
Since I have posted last quite a bit has been happening:
- The PIIGS are heading for a roasting - don't think they are the only ones in this precarious situation - most of the developed world is including the UK and USA. Have a look at who is the next domino to fall
- Greek debt has been downgraded to Junk levels... other PIIGS not that far behind.
- The Greek populace is rioting and airing their discontent with regards to the austerity measures imposed. Think the money loaned to Greece will ever be repaid...?
- EU provides a $1 Trillion dollar package to help alleviate stresses in the EU financial market and save the Euro - what are they thinking.... will it be 2 trillion next month - why not just round it up to a cool 10 trillion, Then the world will know how SERIOUS the EU is... does any of this smack of desperation. These guys don't actually know how to solve this - they have one bazooka to fire and of late it has been misfiring... Albert Einstein once said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" Think throwing more debt after bad is going to solve a problem causes by over-indebtedness?
- Last week we saw an incredulous drop on the DOW of 9% intra-day. This 1000 point slide was terrifying to even the market- makers on the open-outcry market. Think this is a warning of things to come? You better believe it. Think a 20%/30% drop in one day is impossible? Think again. When a market should be sliding but is constantly propped back up the stability is compromised and even though it is successfully held up temporarily, the situation gets ever more precarious. Think of this as a volcano that has been suppressed for years, pressure has been building inexorably as sure as the progression of time - artificially it has been suppressed but the inevitability lies ahead. When this market drops limit down - exchanges will be flooded with orders, servers will crash and pandemonium will break out. People will want to get out at ANY price. Do you feel confident putting your hard earned cash in an environment where you could loose 9% in 20 minutes?
- Trading bots or High Frequency Traders have stirred the ire of the Big Eye in the sky. These guys which provide 73% of liquidity in the US market have been fingered as one of the causes of the dramatic 9% slide. Anyone out there care what fair value is or where a share should be....? Who cares when you can trade in and out of the market sub-second and fleece the unsuspecting public by pushing prices ever so slightly higher/lower and making minuscule amounts although a couple of million times over sub-second.
- Goldman Sach's which does, I quote "...Gods work ..." seems to be the fall guy for the financial crisis. Remember the witch hunts of the 15th century - sure Goldman's is no saint but who really is? If Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citibank etc had to be investigated - they would be found wanting too.
- Gold has made a new high. This is the once place that has shown remarkable stability together with Gold shares. Gold has not yet gone parabolic - when this happens you know it is in its final bull phase - till the spike higher comes - rest easy in your gold investment. Just know that things don't go up or down in a straight line and a correction could be due at any time.
- China is over-heating and its property market is on the brink of a collapse. China imploding could have some dire-consequence for SA short to medium term. China is the main importer of our heavily resource based economy and this could damage our economy and job prospects.
My take on things now with regards to investments and equities: Stay vested in Gold Shares, physical Gold and cash. Agricultural shares and base metals should also hold value although less so. Precious metals and cash are the place to be. I'm happy with cash as long as inflation does not start rearing out of control. I ultimately still believe we are heading for a deflationary crash of epic proportions.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
A Bear? But the market is going up?
That is right, its still going up. The S&P500 is breaking records on the technical scales with the longest relative strength index reading since the 1990s. But if you watch carefully, we have a SECOND rising wedge formation, not only on the S&P500, but the FTSE100 and our TOP40!
Stay long but BE CAREFUL!!
Friday, March 26, 2010
All is calm on the western frontier...
So lets get an update of the long term picture - a rehash of a post of the ALSH chart which previously showed where technically some pretty heave resistance lies.
As one can see a second test of the resistance is underway. Will it break - possibly although short term probably not. The market as it stands has been climbing relentlessly and it is in need of a breather. It it does break it could be an aggressive climb higher although lets not bank on it. The resistance (which previously was support) managed to buoy the market four times, while building a kings crown of a top.
With Marcus cutting rates to everyone's surprise, I'm expecting even more cuts as inflation will be muted and the economy IS going to struggle. Pressure from unions and from horrible growth figures will force her hand. Another surprise is looming just around the corner - shares are heading for a hiding. I know I sound like a broken record but even though markets can blissfully ignore fundamentals these will EVENTUALLY come home to roost.
Gerald Celente an eccentric forecaster is predicting a crash of 2010 and really has a gift of putting across complex scenarios in a very clear and concise manner. Have a look at this clip and you will see a pretty ugly picture. China which is now SA's largest trading partner is really not such a goldilocks story and if they experience pain down the road we will experience it doubly so.
Good Trading
With Marcus cutting rates to everyone's surprise, I'm expecting even more cuts as inflation will be muted and the economy IS going to struggle. Pressure from unions and from horrible growth figures will force her hand. Another surprise is looming just around the corner - shares are heading for a hiding. I know I sound like a broken record but even though markets can blissfully ignore fundamentals these will EVENTUALLY come home to roost.
Gerald Celente an eccentric forecaster is predicting a crash of 2010 and really has a gift of putting across complex scenarios in a very clear and concise manner. Have a look at this clip and you will see a pretty ugly picture. China which is now SA's largest trading partner is really not such a goldilocks story and if they experience pain down the road we will experience it doubly so.
Good Trading
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