Friday, March 12, 2010

Still a big bear on track!

It has been I while since I wrote but I have been following the market closely during this time! The break of huge rising wedge turned out to be bearish for a bit and the market turned again to test the wedge (this is my thinking at this time). I am so glad I caught the down and recently caught the reversal thanks to the inverted head and shoulders that I spotted quite early. The only reason I found this formation in our market is because the S&P500 and the FTSE100 were leading here, both with inverted head and shoulders with good breaks to the upside.
Even having had made money recently, I found myself making schoolboy errors in my trading which I would like to share with you.
1. Haste makes waste - I saw the rising wedge for ages but did not take a major long position for fear of loosing cash. If I had traded the channel and waited for the break out I could easily have double or even tripled the money I made now.
2. Wait for the break then trade - I can really could more than 3 times where I was convinced the wedge was at an end and shorted the crap out of everything. Need I say more.
3. Big downs have big corrections - After the market's tanking I shoulkd have known there was going to be a retracement to at least 50%. Once 38% was passed I should have gone long.
4. Ten minutes spend on economics is 9.5 too much - Watching Bloomberg and the Fed's statements all day will cripple your trading. Watch if you investing for the long term!

Finally, where to from here? The market broke through 61.8% retracement of the recent bear move, which was also the head and shoulder neckline, and today the 71.4%. This market is going one direction in my opinion and that is up, up, up to test the rising wedge. I believe it will fail there, but lets ride the up for now.

Good trading.

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