Bit off topic although something which grates me: With Shell SA intending using Fracking to explore for gas I thought this interactive image showing exactly what happens with this ecologically sensitive process....
Click this link to be enlightened
Kick
PS: By the way market is looking a tad ill. Even my gold shares are taking a beating although simply provides the opportunity to average in your losses :) Seriously - when I buy shares, I buy for the long term and I have no concerns with the short term drop. As long as there are central banks gold and gold shares will do well. Gold has outperformed the miners for the past 2 years plus - I think relatively the miners will do well over the next intermediate term as gold consolidates and the miners play catch-up.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Harmonious Build Up
To follow on from the previous posts "symmetry of price's motion" - a share aptly named Harmony has been building pressure for 9 years - kind of like Yellowstone's Caldera or Super Volcano. Last super eruption - 640,000,000 years ago. Now Harmony can't quite claim such fame although 9 years in the life of a share is a good chunk of change out of its lifespan.
Check out this compression, when Harmony erupts there will nothing Harmonious about this 9 year old pressure cooker blowing a seal.
Harmony has underperformed its brethren - GFI and ANG of late so is due to play catch up - possibly explosively so. .
An update on the JSE All Share top call and "so far so good"
Although lets see what transpires over the next few weeks. With "Helicopter Ben" and his entourage of World Central Bankers flooding the markets with cheap money, and the JSE being a "lucky" recipient thereof as overseas investors (and pensioners) look for a return greater than 0.25% - we could get more "shots in the arm" to keep this patient breathing. Can you say QE3?
Unfortunately a side affect of these shots i.e. paper money being devalued is the astute start looking for hard currency (read commodities) to preserve their wealth. Oil spiking, food prices sky rocketing - say thanks to Ben your friendly Uncle at the "Dollars for All" store.
The world is being turned upside down so to speak, things are degenerating fast in environments where pressure has been building for years due to continuous oppression and suppression of basic human rights and dignity. Where communities spend 70-80% of their disposable income on food, inflation is not a welcome sight. And our friendly Uncle Ben demonised deflation - think these communities would mind food prices dropping.....? We are heading for truly tumultuous times, I instinctively feel it will be getting a lot worse before it gets any better. And when things start escalating, they start escalating quickly. There is a very fine line between what we define as normality - civilized co-operation between states - and outright degeneration to full scale war and occupation of territories. Saudi Arabia is the next potential danger zone and the Western World might try to step in if things get out of control.
Get gold exposure
Kick
Check out this compression, when Harmony erupts there will nothing Harmonious about this 9 year old pressure cooker blowing a seal.
Harmony has underperformed its brethren - GFI and ANG of late so is due to play catch up - possibly explosively so. .
An update on the JSE All Share top call and "so far so good"
Although lets see what transpires over the next few weeks. With "Helicopter Ben" and his entourage of World Central Bankers flooding the markets with cheap money, and the JSE being a "lucky" recipient thereof as overseas investors (and pensioners) look for a return greater than 0.25% - we could get more "shots in the arm" to keep this patient breathing. Can you say QE3?
Unfortunately a side affect of these shots i.e. paper money being devalued is the astute start looking for hard currency (read commodities) to preserve their wealth. Oil spiking, food prices sky rocketing - say thanks to Ben your friendly Uncle at the "Dollars for All" store.
The world is being turned upside down so to speak, things are degenerating fast in environments where pressure has been building for years due to continuous oppression and suppression of basic human rights and dignity. Where communities spend 70-80% of their disposable income on food, inflation is not a welcome sight. And our friendly Uncle Ben demonised deflation - think these communities would mind food prices dropping.....? We are heading for truly tumultuous times, I instinctively feel it will be getting a lot worse before it gets any better. And when things start escalating, they start escalating quickly. There is a very fine line between what we define as normality - civilized co-operation between states - and outright degeneration to full scale war and occupation of territories. Saudi Arabia is the next potential danger zone and the Western World might try to step in if things get out of control.
Get gold exposure
Kick
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Symmetry
Trading can quite often be observed to be an art form where cold hard numbers can be discarded and one can simple appreciate the symmetry of price's motion through time.
Are we at a top? I would be prepared to place a wager....
Good Trading
Kick
Are we at a top? I would be prepared to place a wager....
Good Trading
Kick
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
A Interesting year behind and risk ahead!
This year really had some interesting moments! Made lot of loot on some sitters and lost plenty (luckly not all!) on what can only be described as a white knuckle ride.
What lies ahead for us is a mistery. I can't help but feel we are in a bubble here. But that is 12 years of experiance talking, this is a new world order we find ourselves in. No time has ever been like the present, money being thrown around by the central banks like its tissue paper. I guess what I am trying to say is that I am long, very long this market. The trend is your friend, ...except the bend at the end. And that is what I spend my days trying to figure out, where and when is the bend coming for me.
Goo luck trading and stay in the black!
What lies ahead for us is a mistery. I can't help but feel we are in a bubble here. But that is 12 years of experiance talking, this is a new world order we find ourselves in. No time has ever been like the present, money being thrown around by the central banks like its tissue paper. I guess what I am trying to say is that I am long, very long this market. The trend is your friend, ...except the bend at the end. And that is what I spend my days trying to figure out, where and when is the bend coming for me.
Goo luck trading and stay in the black!
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Gold Shares
Long time no see. Sorry for the absence although when things don't make sense or are pure bullshit I sit out and wait....
Have a look at this Gold Fields(GFI) chart and notice that a bullish breakout is imminent.
Gold Fields (GFI) is reaching a very interesting juncture - it has been in a downtrend since July 2006 where it peaked circa 172 and closed Fri at 102 very close to the resistance line. What is interesting is the pullbacks from the downwards sloping resistance line are getting ever tighter and GFI seems to be at the cusp of breaking free from its grasp. Gold shares are known for performing phenomenally in tough times and were a stand out during the Great Depression of the 1930's - the Dow lost 73% vs some gold shares rising by over 400%
The sloping down trend could continue for a while longer although once the break occurs (which you could wait for) it should have significant bullish implications. This bullish downward sloping wedge has been in the making for 4 years plus, so expect a lengthy climb once the breakout occurs.
Anglogold(ANG) has been building a giant reverse head-and-shoulders formation and is also looking incredibly bullish. The upside potential is massive - easily in the R500's over the next few years.
The range since 2006 has been a R100 tight range from R260 to R360 with a brief sojourn lower to form the head in Oct 2008. The right shoulder has been forming beautifully and typically are shorter. Either wait for the breakout of R36/70 before buying or buy now in the midst of the shoulder formation and sit back and wait as I have been doing.
My punt for the next few tough years :)
Note: no-one is finding it easy and some legendary traders are packing it in (maybe before the ponzi nature is uncovered? Who knows.... lets see)
Good Trading
Have a look at this Gold Fields(GFI) chart and notice that a bullish breakout is imminent.
Gold Fields (GFI) is reaching a very interesting juncture - it has been in a downtrend since July 2006 where it peaked circa 172 and closed Fri at 102 very close to the resistance line. What is interesting is the pullbacks from the downwards sloping resistance line are getting ever tighter and GFI seems to be at the cusp of breaking free from its grasp. Gold shares are known for performing phenomenally in tough times and were a stand out during the Great Depression of the 1930's - the Dow lost 73% vs some gold shares rising by over 400%
The sloping down trend could continue for a while longer although once the break occurs (which you could wait for) it should have significant bullish implications. This bullish downward sloping wedge has been in the making for 4 years plus, so expect a lengthy climb once the breakout occurs.
Anglogold(ANG) has been building a giant reverse head-and-shoulders formation and is also looking incredibly bullish. The upside potential is massive - easily in the R500's over the next few years.
The range since 2006 has been a R100 tight range from R260 to R360 with a brief sojourn lower to form the head in Oct 2008. The right shoulder has been forming beautifully and typically are shorter. Either wait for the breakout of R36/70 before buying or buy now in the midst of the shoulder formation and sit back and wait as I have been doing.
My punt for the next few tough years :)
Note: no-one is finding it easy and some legendary traders are packing it in (maybe before the ponzi nature is uncovered? Who knows.... lets see)
Good Trading
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
SomeTechnicals
The ALSH is balanced fairly precariously - and if you consider, it is currently trading at levels made back in April 2007. You cannot possibly feel satisfied being square after 3 years of fairly gut wrenching ups and downs. That is, if you had the nerve to stay in the market through 2008 (which I doubt). The "band of [french] resistance" should contain any further advances and "ondertoe is ons voorland" (Afrikaans for any international readers...)
Edit: Mind you if we had to get some perfect symmetry to the previous "making of a high" in 2008 - we could advance to slightly higher than the 15 April 2010 high of 29565 and briefly peek into the 30k's - then perform a "U-turn" or should I say a "n -turn" and head much lower. This would quite beautifully mirror the triple top formation of 2008 AND would prove conclusively that trading is an art form...
A look at ABSA which is is a share I am negative on - including other banking shares - but simply picked on for the sake of this post with no prejudice to other banking shares intended.
ASA is descending in 5 waves down indicating a trend change. We could have a counter trend rally soon once if breaks out of the descending wedge which typically occurs in ABC fashion. This could coincide with the EUR making a strong comeback against the USD short term to relieve its heavily oversold status.
By the way I am personally in the process of switching to Capitec Bank - what an absolute pleasure!!!! Being paid enough interest to cover banking fees (which are ridiculously low) is quite a novel concept. Check out these interest rates.... and you are not switching? ---- WHY?
Capitec Daily Savings Account
 | |||
| R0 – R10 000 | 7.00% | ||
 | |||
| R10 000 – R25 000 | 5.75% | ||
| |||
| R25 000 – R100 000 | 5.75% | ||
| |||
| R100 000 + | 5.75% | ||
| |||
| Monthly administration fee | 4.50 | ||
Monday, June 14, 2010
Read this.....
A brilliant article on where we are and what lies ahead - change is definitely a coming.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)